Electoral Behavior in The Electability of Presidential and Vice Presidential Candidates in The 2019 Elections
Corresponding Author(s) : Ferdhiman P Bariguna
Jurnal Ilmu Pemerintahan : Kajian Ilmu Pemerintahan dan Politik Daerah,
Vol. 6 No. 1 (2021): Good Governance and Local Politic
Abstract
This study aims to explain how factors, such as social and religious status, candidate figures, party identity, social and conventional media interactions, issue and program orientation, support of influential figures, and funds affect voter behavior in the 2019 Presidential and Vice Presidential Elections, to be precise in Ibun District. The study of voting behavior was developed because party identification or party loyalty did not have a strong influence, while what happened was that there were social divisions that had strong ties to voter behavior. An interesting phenomenon occurred in Ibun Subdistrict since there was a significant change in the number of voters in the 2014 presidential election where Prabowo received more votes than Jokowi, while in 2019, Jokowi received more votes than Prabowo. The research method in this research was explanatory quantitative research methods by collecting data from the results of questionnaires and documentation. The structural equation model (SEM) analysis method was also carried out to determine the effect of the dependent variable on the independent variable. Based on the findings obtained from this research, the researcher found that four variables greatly influenced the electability of candidates, namely media, the intensity of volunteer visits, religion, and role models. Psychological, sociological, and rational factors map voter behavior so that this can be applied in Ibun Subdistrict. The psychological aspects are represented by the media and role models; the sociological aspect represented by religion, while the rational aspect is represented by the figure of the candidate. Therefore, to increase the electability of candidates, they should imoprove positive image in the media, the intensity of volunteer visits, social piety from religious factors, and relationships with local community leaders.
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- Ansyari, I., Harsasto, P., & Fitriyah, F. (2019). Article Analisis Patron Klien Terhadap Kemenangan Partai Golkar Kabupaten Tanah Datar Sejak Reformasi Irvan Ansyari* Priyatno Harsasto. Indonesian Journal of Religion and Society (Vol. 01). [Crossref]
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- Aspinall, E., & Berenschot, W. (2019). Democracy for sale: Elections, clientelism, and the state in Indonesia.[Crossref]
- Dagg, C. J. (2007). The 2004 elections in Indonesia: Political reform and democratisation. Asia Pacific Viewpoint, 48(1), 47–59. [Crossref]
- Dani Fadillah, Luo Zheng Lin, D. H. (2019). Social Media and General Elections in Malaysia 2018 and Indonesia 2019. KOMUNIKASI, II(01), 1–7.[Crossref]
- Eriyanto, A. (2007). Sampling Technique-Public Opinion Analysis. Yogyakarta: LKiS Pelangi Aksara.
- Fauzi, A. M. (2019). Perilaku Pemilih Menjelang Pemilu 2019. Journal Of Islamic Civilzation, 40–48.[Crossref]
- Flanagan, S. C. (1991). The Japanese voter. Yale University Press.
- Geertz, C. (1960). The Javanese Kijaji: The changing role of a cultural broker. Comparative Studies in Society and History, 2(2), 228–249.
- Kahfi Kurnia, R., & Al-Hamdi, R. (2019). Motif Dukungan Relawan Independen Terhadap Elektabilitas Prabowo-Sandi Pada Pilpres 2019: Studi Atas Gerakan Milenial Indonesia (Gmi) Yogyakarta. Jurnal Profetik Politik, 7(2), 229–249. [Crossref]
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- Lipset, S, M. (1995). The encyclopedia of democracy. Routledge.
- Maulina, P., & Muttaqin, M. (2020). Citra Politik Prabowo-Sandi dalam Pemilihan Presiden (Pilpres) 2019 di Akun Media Sosial Instagram. Interaksi: Jurnal Ilmu Komunikasi, 9(1), 40–50.[Crossref]
- Mochamad Iqbal Jatmiko. (2019). Post - Truth , Media Sosial , dan Misinformasi : Pergolakan Wacana Politik Pemilihan Presiden Indonesia Tahun 2019. Jurnal Tabligh, 20(1), 21–39.[Crossref]
- Niemi, R. G., Weisberg, H. F., Kimball, D. (1929). Controversies in voting behavior (5th ed.). Washington DC: CQ Press.
- Nur Habibi, M., & Sunjana. (2019). Analysis of Indonesia Politics Polarization before 2019 President Election Using Sentiment Analysis and Social Network Analysis. International Journal of Modern Education and Computer Science, 11(11), 22–30. [Crossref]
- Putri, Z. (2018). Survei Median: Prabowo Ungguli Jokowi di Media Sosial.
- Sihidi, I. T., Roziqin, A., Dedik, &, & Suhermanto, F. (2020). Pertarungan Populisme Islam dalam Pemilihan Presiden 2019. JIIP: Jurnal Ilmiah Ilmu Pemerintahan, 5(2), 174–189. [Crossref]
- Uusitalo, H., Ringen, S., Hansen, E., & Erikson, R. (1993). Welfare trends in the Scandinavian countries.
- Wettstein, M., & Wirth, W. (2017). Debate Media Effects: How Media Influence Voters. Swiss Political Science Review, 23(3), 262–269. [Crossref]
References
Ansyari, I., Harsasto, P., & Fitriyah, F. (2019). Article Analisis Patron Klien Terhadap Kemenangan Partai Golkar Kabupaten Tanah Datar Sejak Reformasi Irvan Ansyari* Priyatno Harsasto. Indonesian Journal of Religion and Society (Vol. 01). [Crossref]
Ardipandanto, A. (2020). Dampak Politik Identitas Pada Pilpres 2019: Perspektif Populisme The Impact of Identity Politics On President Election 2019: Populism Perspective Aryojati Ardipandanto. Jurnal Politica Dinamika Masalah Politik Dalam Negeri Dan Hubungan Internasional, 11(1), 43–63. [Crossref]
Aspinall, E., & Berenschot, W. (2019). Democracy for sale: Elections, clientelism, and the state in Indonesia.[Crossref]
Dagg, C. J. (2007). The 2004 elections in Indonesia: Political reform and democratisation. Asia Pacific Viewpoint, 48(1), 47–59. [Crossref]
Dani Fadillah, Luo Zheng Lin, D. H. (2019). Social Media and General Elections in Malaysia 2018 and Indonesia 2019. KOMUNIKASI, II(01), 1–7.[Crossref]
Eriyanto, A. (2007). Sampling Technique-Public Opinion Analysis. Yogyakarta: LKiS Pelangi Aksara.
Fauzi, A. M. (2019). Perilaku Pemilih Menjelang Pemilu 2019. Journal Of Islamic Civilzation, 40–48.[Crossref]
Flanagan, S. C. (1991). The Japanese voter. Yale University Press.
Geertz, C. (1960). The Javanese Kijaji: The changing role of a cultural broker. Comparative Studies in Society and History, 2(2), 228–249.
Kahfi Kurnia, R., & Al-Hamdi, R. (2019). Motif Dukungan Relawan Independen Terhadap Elektabilitas Prabowo-Sandi Pada Pilpres 2019: Studi Atas Gerakan Milenial Indonesia (Gmi) Yogyakarta. Jurnal Profetik Politik, 7(2), 229–249. [Crossref]
Kantohe, S. A., & Sumampouw, R. (2019). Perilaku Pemilih dalam Pemilihan Presiden Dan Wakil Presiden Republik Indonesia Tahun 2019 (Suatu Studi Di Kelurahan Taas Kecamatan Tikala Kota Manado ), 2019, 1–15.
Lipset, S, M. (1995). The encyclopedia of democracy. Routledge.
Maulina, P., & Muttaqin, M. (2020). Citra Politik Prabowo-Sandi dalam Pemilihan Presiden (Pilpres) 2019 di Akun Media Sosial Instagram. Interaksi: Jurnal Ilmu Komunikasi, 9(1), 40–50.[Crossref]
Mochamad Iqbal Jatmiko. (2019). Post - Truth , Media Sosial , dan Misinformasi : Pergolakan Wacana Politik Pemilihan Presiden Indonesia Tahun 2019. Jurnal Tabligh, 20(1), 21–39.[Crossref]
Niemi, R. G., Weisberg, H. F., Kimball, D. (1929). Controversies in voting behavior (5th ed.). Washington DC: CQ Press.
Nur Habibi, M., & Sunjana. (2019). Analysis of Indonesia Politics Polarization before 2019 President Election Using Sentiment Analysis and Social Network Analysis. International Journal of Modern Education and Computer Science, 11(11), 22–30. [Crossref]
Putri, Z. (2018). Survei Median: Prabowo Ungguli Jokowi di Media Sosial.
Sihidi, I. T., Roziqin, A., Dedik, &, & Suhermanto, F. (2020). Pertarungan Populisme Islam dalam Pemilihan Presiden 2019. JIIP: Jurnal Ilmiah Ilmu Pemerintahan, 5(2), 174–189. [Crossref]
Uusitalo, H., Ringen, S., Hansen, E., & Erikson, R. (1993). Welfare trends in the Scandinavian countries.
Wettstein, M., & Wirth, W. (2017). Debate Media Effects: How Media Influence Voters. Swiss Political Science Review, 23(3), 262–269. [Crossref]